管理层权力制衡强度、债务约束与企业创新投资

企业创新是国家经济可持续增长的关键，受到管理层意愿的影响，因而需要对内部经营者的权力进行制衡。以2010-2018年我国A股上市公司为研究样本，实证检验管理层权力制衡强度对企业创新投资的影响，以及不同债务约束情境下高商业信用配置、高负债水平的调节效应，此外，还考察了产权性质的差异化影响。研究表明，管理层权力制衡强度越大，企业创新投资水平越高；高商业信用强化了该促进作用，而高负债水平弱化了该促进作用。进一步研究发现，管理层权力制衡强度与企业创新投资的关系在民企中更显著；国企能够更好地获得和运用商业信用，使其高商业信用对该关系的强化效应更显著；民企具有更强的债务约束，其高负债水平对该关系的弱化效应更明显。     

Co-movement in Stock Prices in Emerging Economies: The Case of the Caricom Region

The Grand Anse Declaration of 1989 recognised the need for financial integration within the emerging economies that comprise the CARICOM region, as a way of furthering the wider process of economic integration and, indeed, economic development in that region. Using co-movement as a measure of financial integration, this paper investigates the co-movement in stock prices among the Barbados, the Jamaica and the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchanges, the three major exchanges within the CARICOM region. It also examines how integrated these exchanges are with the New York Stock Exchange. The GARCH-Copula methodology and, to a lesser extent, estimated correlation coefficients, are used to attain this objective. There appears to be co-movement in stock prices and returns within the CARICOM stock markets and significant dependence structures between the returns of the three CARICOM stock markets. However, there is considerably less evidence of integration between the CARICOM markets and the New York Stock Exchange.     

增信服务还是腐蚀效应:论金融科技等新兴产业发展过程中的风险信号

提出行业性风险暴发的"腐蚀效应"理论,即存在着一种特殊的行业风险暴发过程:行业中各个企业的倒闭是沿着企业的资质链从低到高的顺序发生的.该过程的存在得到了数据回归证实.对于科技金融等新兴行业,警惕和积极防范腐蚀效应,对防范行业性风险具有重要意义.对于客户信任高度依赖的新兴行业,如金融科技等,最容易出现腐蚀效应.因此,在一度高速膨胀的网络贷款领域出现腐蚀效应具有一定必然性."腐蚀效应"的存在也否定了当前把网络贷款行业大面积爆雷的原因归咎于其开展"增信服务"的普遍观点,真正引发风险的原因是网络贷款行业中的企业资质参差不齐和无序竞争造成的无谓成本的大幅增加.从政府对行业的管理视角来看,在促进行业发展时不忘记防范风险十分重要.这在实质上是对制度-制度接口的设计问题.因此应当以制度设计理论来指导防范风险政策的制定,才能取得更好的效果.     

Cluster Analysis for mixed data: An application to credit risk evaluation

Credit risk is one of the main risks faced by a bank to provide financial products and services to clients. To evaluate the financial performance of clients, several scoring methodologies have been proposed, which are based mostly on quantitative indicators. This paper highlights the relevance of both quantitative and qualitative features of applicants and proposes a new methodology based on mixed data clustering techniques. Indeed, cluster analysis may prove particularly useful in the estimation of credit risk. Traditionally, clustering concentrates only on quantitative or qualitative data at a time; however, since credit applicants are characterized by mixed personal features, a cluster analysis specific for mixed data can lead to discover particularly informative patterns, estimating the risk associated with credit granting.     

Risk spillover between Bitcoin and conventional financial markets: An expectile-based approach

In order to challenge the existing literature that points to the detachment of Bitcoin from the global financial system, we use daily data from August 17, 2011–February 14, 2020 and apply a risk spillover approach based on expectiles. Results show reasonable evidence to imply the existence of downside risk spillover between Bitcoin and four assets (equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities), which seems to be time dependent. Our main findings have implications for participants in both the Bitcoin and traditional financial markets for the sake of asset allocation, and risk management. For policy makers, the findings suggest that Bitcoin should be monitored carefully for the sake of financial stability.     

Network structure,portfolio diversification and systemic risk

We investigate the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk, where the network effect is incorporated. We analyze three kinds of interbank networks, namely, random networks, small-world networks and scale-free networks. We show that the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk depends on interbank network structures and shock types. First, systemic risk increases first and then reduces with the increase of the level of portfolio diversification in the case of the individual shock. Second, in the case of the systemic shock, systemic risk reduces with the increases of the level of portfolio diversification. Third, banking systems with scale-free network structures are the most stable, and those with small-world network structures are the most vulnerable.     

Multilayer financial networks and systemic importance: Evidence from China

In this paper, we develop a multilayer network structure and reveal the relationship between network structure and systemic risk. Unlike many previous studies, our model considers both liability and cross-holding of shares between financial institutions simultaneously. We propose a new systemic risk measurement by exploring the dynamic mechanism of financial contagion in the multilayer network. We display the network structure of Chinese financial institutions, including connectivity and diversity, and identify the systemic importance of them. We demonstrate that the multilayer network plays a non-linear role in financial risk spreading. Using the panel regression model and several experiment evidences, we show that the systemic risk can be explained more effectively by the linkage diversity more than the connectivity at both the institutional level and the system level. Our results highlight the importance of considering contagion mechanisms that go beyond a simple single-layer network structure.     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

The acerbity of the social: how to include the social in governmental risk assessments

This paper addresses the expansion of risk practices through a case study of a government led project in Sweden purposed to develop a method to include social events in mandatory risk practices. Social heterogeneity was to be transformed into straightforward causality in order to turn the social into a manageable object. In this regard, the project was quite successful. By inviting social scientists into the process, otherwise often marginalized within risk practice, causality and quantifiable risk factors could be established and the model became a rigorous and legitimate scientific model. Although experts were granted significant autonomy and became experts far beyond their own area of expertise, the success of the model lies rather in allowing experts authority within confined boundaries. Grand narratives and critical perspectives are disregarded as too abstract and if social scientists are to infuse aspects of social critique they must adapt to these circumstances: they must become instrumentalists.